The relegation battle: 38 points, six clubs and one fatal flaw each

Where the safety line sits this season

Across the last ten completed Serie A seasons, 17th place has averaged 34.6 points, with a spread from 31 to 38. This season the bottom is unusually competitive: five clubs are within four points of each other and only one side looks genuinely cut adrift. When the bottom compresses like that, the survival line rises, because points get shared inside the group rather than harvested from a single doomed team. Our model puts the 26/27 line at 37 to 38 points — higher than usual, and a number every board in the group should be planning against.

The practical implication for a club currently on 21 points is that 16 or 17 more from 19 games is enough. That is a 0.87 points-per-game rate: roughly four wins, five draws and ten defeats. Framing survival as a rate rather than a run of heroics changes how you read February results, and it is why we publish a required-rate column rather than a form table.

The danger group

Fixture difficulty is calculated from opponent strength, home-away balance and rest days, then normalised across the group. Udinese have the softest remaining calendar of the seven and are our clearest survival pick despite an unconvincing December. Lecce have the hardest — five of their next eight are against sides in the top eight — which is why their required rate of a full point per game is more punishing than it looks.

The single flaw in each squad

Goals from anywhere but the striker

Three of the seven take more than 62% of their shots from outside the box or from wide positions. Low shot quality is survivable in a good season and lethal in a bad one: it produces the classic Serie A bottom-half profile of eight draws and no momentum. Pisa's issue is starker — the lowest expected goals per shot in the division at 0.077.

Set-piece defending

Verona have conceded 11 goals from dead balls, comfortably the worst in the league, and their aerial duel success in their own box sits below 45%. Recruiting one 190cm centre-back in January is worth more to them than any attacking signing, and it is exactly the sort of unglamorous fix boards resist.

Coaching churn

Four of the seven have already changed head coach. The historical record is unkind: mid-season changes in Serie A produce a short-term bounce of about 0.2 points per game over six matches, which then fully decays. A second change in the same season shows no measurable benefit at all. Watch for clubs that hold their nerve — they tend to be the ones with a plan.

Pros and cons of the two most interesting cases

The fixture blocks that decide it

There are four six-pointers left inside the group, and three of them fall between rounds 29 and 33. That is the window where the table stops moving gradually and starts moving in threes. Our fixture index flags Cagliari's block of Verona (home), Lecce (away) and Pisa (home) as the most valuable stretch any relegation candidate holds — nine points available against direct rivals. If they take seven, they are safe by round 34.

Our verdict

We project Pisa down with near-certainty, Verona as the second most likely relegation, and a genuine coin-flip between Lecce and Cagliari for the final place, decided by their round-31 meeting in Puglia. Torino and Udinese should be safe by the first week of May. If you follow one club in this group, follow Genoa: their process is top-half and their results are not, and that gap usually closes.